Rural Voters Are Turning on Trump — And Farmers Are Leading the Way

When a president starts losing the voters who backed him most enthusiastically, it is worth paying attention — especially when those voters are telling pollsters exactly why. A new national poll shows that rural Americans, including many who supported Donald Trump by wide margins in 2024, are now more likely to disapprove of his job performance than approve, a significant shift that could reshape the political landscape heading into this year's midterm elections.

The data comes from a Fox News poll conducted May 15–18, 2026, among 1,002 registered voters nationwide. The survey was jointly run by Beacon Research, a Democratic-aligned firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican-aligned firm, using live phone interviews and online responses. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The headline number shows Trump's overall approval rating sitting at 39 percent — just one point above the lowest level recorded in this polling series. But the more striking findings are among specific voter groups that have historically been among his strongest supporters.

A Sharp Reversal Among Rural Voters

Among rural Americans, Trump's net approval rating — the gap between those who approve and those who disapprove — has swung by 34 points since early 2025. In March of last year, that number stood at +20, meaning significantly more rural voters approved than disapproved. By May 2026, it had flipped to -14. The steepest single drop came between April and May of this year, when net approval among rural voters fell 16 points in just one month.

Among rural white voters specifically, the trend is nearly as dramatic. Net approval dropped from +27 in early 2025 to -6 in May 2026 — a 33-point decline in a group that has been one of the most reliably pro-Trump demographics in the country.

These are not small movements. In closely contested Senate and House races, even modest shifts in rural turnout or enthusiasm can decide outcomes.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News survey alongside Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, described what he is seeing in blunt terms.

"Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit," Shaw said. "Make no mistake; it's all about affordability. Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering."

The poll also shows that Trump's approval among Republican voters overall has fallen to its lowest point of his second term — a notable development given that Republican support has typically been the most stable part of his coalition.

The Economy Is the Core Issue

When voters are asked specifically about how Trump is handling the economy, the numbers are stark. Just 29 percent of all voters approved, while 71 percent disapproved. Among rural voters, the split was nearly identical: 30 percent approved and 70 percent disapproved.

Inflation produced the most negative response of any issue tested in the poll. Only 24 percent of voters overall approved of Trump's handling of rising prices, with 76 percent disapproving. Among rural voters, 28 percent approved and 71 percent disapproved.

Even border security — long one of Trump's strongest issues with rural and conservative voters — has slipped into net negative territory nationally for the first time this term, with 49 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving. Rural voters still lean toward approval on that issue, at 54 to 45 percent.

Foreign policy sits firmly underwater nationally, at 38 percent approval to 62 percent disapproval, though rural voters were slightly less critical, with 42 percent approving and 58 percent disapproving. Trump's handling of a recent China summit drew 54 percent disapproval overall, while rural voters were narrowly positive at 50 percent approval to 49 percent disapproval.

Farmers Are Feeling It Directly

Behind the polling numbers are real financial struggles playing out on farms across the country. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, farm bankruptcies rose 46 percent in 2025 compared with the year before — a dramatic increase driven by rising production costs and shrinking profit margins.

Those pressures have continued into 2026. The escalation of conflict involving Iran has pushed up global energy prices, which feed directly into the cost of running a farm. Diesel for tractors and machinery has become more expensive. So has fertilizer, which is heavily tied to natural gas prices.

Willis Nelson, a Louisiana farmer, explained the impossible math many growers are now facing.

"We're not financially able" to operate as normal, Nelson said, explaining that his family has had to cut back on fertilizer use because "we just don't have the margin."

"It's tough, you know, very tough on us," Nelson added, as his multigenerational farm faces the prospect of bankruptcy.

Ohio farmer Fred Yoder described costs that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

"It's costing us about $1,500 of cash per day to run two tractors," Yoder said in comments shared by Farm Action from an interview with US Farm Report. On fertilizer prices, he added: "I spent many years buying potash for $90 a ton, and now it's $670 to $700 a ton. Our big problem is the input costs. I haven't seen anything this bad since the 1980s."

Trade policy has added another layer of strain. Reduced demand from China for American soybeans and other agricultural products has left many farmers without reliable export markets at a time when domestic costs are already climbing. Trump's recent remarks during a Beijing visit — in which he argued against restrictions on Chinese purchases of American farmland, saying such limits would push down land values — have also unsettled farmers who are already uneasy about foreign ownership of agricultural land.

The White House Pushes Back

Administration officials disputed the significance of the polling data. White House spokesman Kush Desai argued that the U.S. economy has remained "resilient" under Trump and said "as this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the president's healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term."

Spokesman Davis Ingle pointed to Trump's 2024 election victory as a more meaningful measure of public sentiment, saying "the ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda."

Ingle said the administration is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," and argued that the progress made so far is "just the beginning" of what the president's second-term agenda will deliver.