Virginia Families Face Strain as Job Market Weakens

Governor Glenn Youngkin began his term promising a “rip-roaring economy.” But the latest forecast from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia shows that momentum is fading, with consequences now reaching households across the state.

Job Losses Already Hitting Homes

Virginia has already seen job losses in three of the first six months of 2025 — more than in the previous four years combined. Families dependent on federal employment are particularly vulnerable. Northern Virginia, the state’s economic engine, is experiencing reductions in federal jobs that ripple into contracting and professional services. These sectors have long supported middle-class families, paying mortgages, covering college tuition, and sustaining local economies.

By the end of 2025, Virginia is projected to lose 22,500 jobs, finishing the year with a net decline of 11,700. For thousands of households, that means reduced income, uncertainty about health coverage, and harder choices about daily expenses.

Household Budgets Stretched

The impact goes beyond federal workers. Manufacturing families are also bracing for losses. Plant closures — such as the Georgia-Pacific plywood plant in Emporia — and layoffs at Goodyear in Danville mean entire communities are losing anchors of stability. Tariffs, designed to strengthen domestic production, instead create higher prices for imports and uncertainty about exports, adding stress to household budgets already squeezed by rising costs.

While some sectors — health care, construction, and transportation — continue to add jobs, those gains do not always match the skills of those who are losing work. Families tied to government or contracting cannot easily shift into these roles, leaving many in limbo. Even when new jobs are available, they are not necessarily located in the same communities, forcing families to weigh difficult decisions about relocation.

Rising Unemployment Brings Uncertainty

Virginia’s unemployment rate has climbed for seven straight months, now at 3.6%. The forecast sees it rising to 4.7% by mid-2026 — the highest non-pandemic level in more than a decade. For families, that means not just the loss of income, but the anxiety of prolonged job searches and uncertainty about the future.

Looking Ahead for Virginia Families

The Weldon Cooper Center forecasts almost no job growth in 2026 and only modest recovery in 2027. For families across the state, that suggests continued caution — fewer new opportunities, slower wage growth, and greater financial strain. While health care and construction may keep expanding, these sectors alone cannot offset the losses elsewhere, nor can they guarantee stability for families directly impacted by federal cuts and tariffs.

The numbers are stark: Virginia’s economy, once on a strong trajectory, now faces stagnation. For families, this forecast translates into daily concerns — from keeping up with bills to planning for the future. Whoever becomes governor in 2026 will inherit not just a sluggish economy, but the responsibility of helping Virginia households weather an uncertain stretch ahead.